zondag 27 november 2016

Is Lego worth more than Gold? The Test part 2

The first month of this experiment has passed by now, and I must confess I already am cursing some of the choices I made in the "buy-in" part.

A trend seems to be emerging already, and I can already see that some parts of the buy-in will require short of a miracle to even get break even.

Now, those used, complete sets where an awful mistake, as they move nearly next to nowhere, and I`m refraining from adding more of them to my portfolio anymore.  They turned over a measly 34.40 USD over the whole month, leaving me woefully short for recuperating the initial 300 USD assigned to them.  I guess I know now why they are easily available everywhere...

On the other hand, the whole "loose parts" are going like a train.  They had already recuperated a goo portion in the previous month, and continued to run smoothly during november, recovering another 90.01 USD.  I already reinvested in a whole lot of them, like on this video below, and spend 74.10 USD on fresh elements.  Adding in the loose minifigures that came out of the lot, and they are over 2/3rds of breaking even.

Set wise, the currently available ones are going slow, but I have been looking for promotions and the likes with the past Black Friday sales to top up the portfolio, and hopefully flip them over in the second half of 2017. 

I made myself a mental "table" on how much I`m willing to spend, at which discounts, and that resulted in this.  Not sure if it`s viable, or if I`ll find a gigantic amount of sets, but above those margins, I`m not buying in anymore

-50% : Creator, Ninjago, Technic, Nexo Knights, Superheroes, City, Friends
-40% : Star Wars, Jurassic World, Scooby Doo
-35% : Large Technic sets, Architecture, Disney Princesses
-25% : Exclusives

Now, a bit of clarification on some of them perhaps, but on the contrary to some, I`m a firm believer in the Disney sets, wether it being the minifigures, the castle, of the minidoll populated sets.  To many people in my opinion are jumping on Star Wars, and the market is really inflated on those.  Still, it being Star Wars I`m giving them more leeway then the current lines.
The same goes for Architecture sets.  Of all the ranges Lego produces, those are perhaps the most interesting ones from a non-Lego fan point of view.  I`m talking the smaller sets even, like Big Ben, the skylines, the small Eifel tower... sets anyone who loves those places can place on their mantlepiece of office desk without problem.
Time will tell, but those are things I`m definitly keeping my eyes open for.

The Numbers

So there we are, time for crunching some numbers after the first full month.  Starting with the good news, my ROI this month was 202.26 USD, meaning I`m only currently 769.86 USD "in the red".  That isn`t something to panic about, and at this rate I should be able to start making some profit in half a year time.  That also means the villa with swimming pool is still far off.
Adding numbers from last month, the reinvesting and all included, I need to recover the following as such:
Used parts still need 70.55 USD out of their initial 200 to break even, something I halfways expect to happen before long.
Used sets, as I started with, is turning out to be a hopeless case.  No less then 265.40 USD needs to be recuperated, and if those don`t start moving soon, I think I`m just going to part them out and go at it that way.

With all the buying I did in current sets, that still needs 157.27 USD to reach the break even mark, but the older sets, who already went in the green last time, kept rising and now already are 126.95 USD above their breaking even, so they are partly compensating the used ones. 
The Exclusives at the end did really well again, but it`s harder and harder to buy into them, especially with the holiday season at the door.  270.16 USD is what`s needed for them to go totally in the green, but I don`t think that will be a problem in the end at all.
My BrickPicker brickfolio is putting my stock out currently at 1769.71, and that would mean that in theory the doubling is possible, but we will have to see about that in 11 months time!

Well, that`s it for a few numbers and impressions for this month, the next episode will be coming somewhere between christmas and new year, so hopefully until then!

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