dinsdag 27 december 2016

Is Lego worth more then Gold? The Test part 3

First of all, let me all wish you a happy new year as 2016 wraps up, and many trading fun in 2017.

Now, let's kick in an open door: the christmas season, according to the "professionals" if you follow sites like BrickPicker have been terrible.

Rampant complaining about bursting bubbles, big drops in end of year sales, "it's all Amazon's fault" and more of those things are spreading like wildfire.  And in a way, it is true, as even for this test, it was clear that what is said in those forums do holds a bit of merit.  And then again, it doesn`t either in some other ways.

If you took a look at the various Facebook pages that go about selling, the amount of Black Friday Amazon deals, and the discounted Kruidvat (a local chain of stores) sets have been abundant.  Everyone thought they could pick a big grain, and in the end, a lot where left with full stocks that didn`t move.  Personally, I barely bothered in december as everything was being saturated with boxed sets, and as such had only a modest movement of 200.57 USD, a measly 10 dollars more then it was in november. That means 569.29 USD to go to break even... or a more manageable 63.25 USD a month.

Now, what did move a LOT where again loose parts, and they "broke" into the green this month.  On the other hand, the used sets remain a disaster, with only two small Jurassic World sets moving for an "amazing" 28.24 USD.

For the rest, it was a calm month, as I got 84.11 USD worth of sets in, which I flipped again within a day for 99.39 USD.  While 15 dollars doesn`t seem that much, it was a quick, roughly 12% profit with minimal effort.  That is a decent margin for small stuff in the end, considering I had to do next to nothing, the profit almost can be seen just as a commission.

But as I said, the constant sources remain loose parts, and loose (franchise) minifigures, as they really made my month.  While I`ve spend 9.92 USD on some small part and fig lot at a fleamarket, I came in with 32.04 USD of loose parts, but also a staggering 108.25 USD in used figures.

Yes, this has made the decision final, as I`m going to be parting out the used sets, still counting for a huge 237.40 USD to recuperate.  If I tally those instead into the used parts department, which is now sitting on a comfortable 59.82 USD profit since the beginning (out of an initial investment of 200 USD), that would delete the whole used sets from my numbers and make the loose parts and figures department now an investment of 500 USD, of which 177.78 still has to be recuperated.  This actually looks far better then having to put hopes up with used complete sets to be honest, and more feasible.

So what direction to take?

Well, after one quarter of the test being completed now, a pattern for myself personally is being formed.  I'm going to aim for the remainder of the test on the loose parts and figures.
Sets, both new and old, are indeed saturated at the moment, and to that end I`m going to try and liquidate them over the coming months, probably at some event left or right.  And if they don`t go, I`ll just be opening them after the test, and part them out in pieces for my mocs. The things I can`t use for my Tolkien builds will be figures and pieces for trading.
Used Sets, I ain`t touching those ever again...
Exclusives is a dangerous and very volatile market, and then I`m not only talking things like the Fountain or other give away sets.  One day they go for a lot, the other it's all about pennies.  It has a too high risk factor in my opinion.
So yes, I`ll be focussing on loose elements (still a lot to sort) and figures of all kinds for supplementing my hobby budget in 2017, clearly these aren`t the high winners, but they are a far more constant source of turn over.

I`ll hopefully see you all back in a month, with more opinions on this little excursion in the trading of Lego around...

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