zondag 30 oktober 2016

Is Lego worth more than Gold? The Test part 1

And so the first half month, or start, of this big test has begun, and it was a "special observation".

I actually did very good on the barely 2 weeks time, but in all honesty, I should say that this is all very preliminary, and it isn`t said at all this will go on for the coming 12 months.

While I`m going to run this oversight on a monthly basis, I am going to close off / publish the results every last sunday of the month unless I`m at a convention, as that gives me the time to do the maths every time without having to rush for free time.

The first half month has gone by in a craze, and if I drew the line right here, the test would be a straight "yes".  But that is not how it works, as I had a few special factors this time, in that

1. I went out the gate and opened my portfolio
2. I had one very good mover as someone came by and took along a serious pile.

Now the real hard part of the test is going to begin, to make smart choices, look for good finds, and hopefully move everything around in the coming 12 months.

One thing that did of course more then decent have been the sealed sets, but this is mainly due to part 2 of the points listed above.  Someone came along to pick up a single set and went home with two bags full of boxes and polybags, so I would say it`s more due to my charming personality.

Of the  sets that have left my portfolio, I already reinvested a large part and then some again in fresh sets.
Another big winner in my test have been the losse parts and elements tub I bought.  I`m just 1.10th into the box of sorting them out, identifying the parts and trying to move them, yet I already recuperated 135.90 USD out of the 200 USD.  Yet, I`m going to use that budget to buy-in on cheap franchise minifigures though, that`s a far easier job in the future for listing and pick and pack.  So far, a measly 36.55 USD has went back to that purpose.
The used sets... those are a bummer so far.  I picked up one for 4.80 and it went out again for 5.00, making a horrible 20 cents... but at least I didn`t loose anything on it, so that`s nice.  But for the rest it is quiet on that front... very very quiet.

So that brings us to the numbers part so far:

The split:

200 USD in used parts - This went great, already gaining me 135.90, and 36.55 has been spend again.  So now this is standing at 100.65 to get break even
300 USD in used sets The recipe for disaster is seems, as I spend an additional 4.80 on this section, and only got 5.00 in return, meaning I need to obtain 299.80 to break even...
500 USD in old and new sealed sets, divided as followed As stated above, these blew out of the gate from the go, but due to a special factor.  I already reinvested a certain amount, and as such the numbers now are as followes...
 * 100 USD of current small sets I added 35.13 USD to the total, but I already moved 49.43 USD, so it`s currently at 85.70 USD
 * 150 USD in older, retired, sets Didn`t do bad at all, as I moved 210.84 USD and put in a fresh 16.47 USD, for a result of 44.37 USD.  These sets have actually already payed themselves back, and can now start compensating my numbers in the future for the things that don`t do well.  I`m looking at you, used sets...
 * 250 USD in Exclusives as expected, I got 93.37 USD for a couple of it, and bought sets worth 257.27 USD.  The result as such is 413.90 USD, and I`m fairly certain I`ll be flipping those bigtime over the coming year, so this one part I won`t be having stress about as the longer they remain, the better they`ll perform.

So for the following month, the score is as follows:

-100.65 USD in Used Parts
-299.80 USD in Used Sets
-455.23 USD in old and new sealed Sets, divided as followed:
- 85.70 USD in current small sets
+ 44.37 USD in older, retired sets
- 413.90 USD in Exclusives

So that brings us to an oversight on how I actually performed this month.  Judging by all the red numbers above, you might think it looks grave, but actually it`s going fine.  My BrickPicker Portfolio has lowered a bit due to the lower number of sets currently in my possession, but the end of the line numbers are rather well.  You`ll notice a small discrepancy in the numbers above and those below, but that is due to the fact some sets have already been payed for, but haven`t arrived yet.  So they aren`t taken up in the "present stock" value yet.

The Numbers

Start: 1000 USD
Portfolio Value: 1790.80 USD - A slight lowering in projected value of remaining sets compared to last month, mostly due to the volume of sets having been significantly lowered.
Goal: 2000 USD
The Wet Dream: 3500 USD
Current: - 972.12 USD

So looking at the hard numbers, this means that this month I made a shift of an amazing... 27.88 USD, which is mainly due to the heavy buy in in Exclusive sets near the end of october (Minecraft, airline exclusives, that sort of things) and the fact the used sets aren't moving for the moment.

Time to panic?  Of course not, we are only two weeks down the line for a year long experiment and the fact "sale season" is nearing for EOL sets, I even expect the numbers to dip into the red far further the coming month or two.  After that, the real job begins in trying to bring the numbers back up, and go towards the greens...

For my personal feeling, I think I`m easily going to break even at the end of the year, but doubling... while I first thought that it would be sets that are going to break the bank, I`m more and more convinded that actual loose parts are going to be the tie-breaker... unless the used sets start performing, something I clearly overinvested in apparently.

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