Mental musings of doing things on the side

 Last week at work, the topic came up of doing some trades on the side within the geeky life.

Well, for one who has done that, I brought some fond memories, but also those of hard work and struggles to mind.

So for no really particular reason, I sat down and decided to put my thoughts on the matter to virtual paper in this opinion piece.  In the past decade, I have been tippytoeing in the matter on various fronts: wargames, LEGO, trading card games, anime figures... and they all have their plusses and drawbacks, but one really did stand out as perhaps the most "intresting" investment for those with not that much funds or spare time.  But of course, that will be talked about later in this piece, namely cards.

Let's first have a look at the other three.

LEGO is by far perhaps the best return in the long haul, the venerable brick remains an ever popular item, and especially (bigger) franchise sets can really double to tripple over value in the course of only a few years.  Unless the umpteenth Star Wars rerelease comes around, which can sink your stock.  Another market for the bricks is literally that, selling the bricks seperatly.  But truth to be told, dealing in lego is nearly a full time occupation, especially if it involves the sorting out of a bunch of loose elements.

Another drawback is that you need really a LOT of space to store it all, wether it's loose bricks or boxed sets, and you have, in the latter, keep in mind to store it dry and dark to obtain the quality of the box.  So the damp cellar is out of the question.

Anime figures is perhaps the most volatile of them all.  It's hard to predict which figures will remain popular, there are so many alternatives of each character, and an anime that is hot now might be forgotten tomorrow as there is a LOT of material out there, so everyone can have a different waifu or husbando every day of the year.  This makes it a very risky investment (as I found out shamefully) that can leave you with a lot of dead stock, though usually IF one goes out of the RRP to the highly wanted list, the numbers tend to rise very high.  Mainly also due to the high cost the figures usually start at.  I`m talking scales here, because the cheaper price figures are so abundant, people usually grab one when a character comes out, and don`t have the need for a full collection of them generally, bar perhaps miss Hatsune Miku who has a rabid following of collectors.  But they usually don`t wait to long after figures come out to get theirs.

Wargame figures are really tricky.  Over the years, I found that there are two "worth it" markets: OOp but still usable currently Games Workshop models and well painted complete historical armies.  But the issue with that is, that apart from the buy in of an army, no matter the scale, there is also a lot of time investment needed to paint, base and generally make it nice armies to sell on.  While there are mainstay periods, often other historical era's lost their mojo by the time a non-professional studio or artist has had his army finished, and he remains stuck with an army to sell off hopefully at purchase price at the local Bring and Buy of a convention. 

So that brings us to the fourth player, the trading card.  Especially Magic, Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh are incredibly popular still, and buying booster boxes at releases often, if you go the loose card market like I did, yield some profit.  The storage space needed for your stock is, if using a good toploader boxing system, smaller then the others, and with some decent filing system you can rather quikcly pick orders.  BUT, and there is a big BUT, not only are you dependant on the meta of the moment for which cards are hot or not, you also have the "tournament legal" period of most sets to actually flip your cards around.  After that, you tend to get stuck with cheap rares and boxes full of commons and uncommons that you can barely get rid off, unless as bulk at flea markets and the likes.

But, if I consider all those factors, I guess card games still are the safest bet to invest a bit on the side.  The limited needed space, combined with the less hassle to pack things up, make it a good side-hobby if you look to do some side-haggling.  And you never know when you might break open that awesome card that is wanted by everyone and gets you a nice amount of pocket money.

Maybe I should indeed return to do that a bit again... and save the work of the other ones I tried over the years.

Is Lego worth more than Gold? The Test part 5... and the end.

The short answer: yes, I must admit Lego pays back for itself.

The long answer?  Well, that`s why I`m typing this, as in a way my projected 12 month journey in trial and error has already come to a close within 5 months.

My buy-inn has completely paid itself back, and I still have a lot of sets and loose bricks left over.  Now, with the whole "BrickLink Youtubers" discussion currently going on on YouTube, which exploded through this video by MandRproductions, the whole swoop life and All the Bags hashtags and the likes is currently a hot theme in the AFOL community.

Well, I must say, that after studying the internet for the past months, I kind of became for more lenient to the haulers.  In my early days, I thought them a problem as well, and that a lot of it was overhyped, but now that I dipped a toe in that water, I kind of see the use of well stocked Brick Link stores.  I can now imagine how hard it would be to fill inventory otherwise in loose parts, if you would have to rely on fleamarket finds and everything.

Instead, clearing out clearance sales (which, well, are on clearance, so anyone could have long bought the said sets before), scanning over Amazon and looking for local good deals, even from a high price country as Belgium it IS possible to, even though with a lot of effort, with the big discounts in the United States. 

Provided you go the loose part route and not the set route.  Shipping for a large set is far heavier (and riskier for damage and the complaints) then going to the postal office 26x in a month with one or two padded enveloppes with the parts from those sets.  Because almost every element is wanted somewhere it seems.

Now, one thing I learned to be on the look-out for is the Year One Dimensions sets.  While we don`t have the 1 dollar clearances the States had in the past month in the .99Cents retail chain, you can often find the sets in toy stores and online for around the 5 euro mark.  Considering those still part out to a value of around 11 - 12 euro, that`s a fantastic increase for such a small set, and far higher then what it would be sold for if trying to flip it "in the box". 
Add to that the fact that those sets have (in the long term for sure) licensed minifigures compared to the generic City or Friends one, and I feel they are a winner.

Now, don`t get me wrong, parting out, sorting and storing all the sorts of loose elements is a VERY intensive job, and far harder then just putting a heap of boxes in a closet somewhere.  And when that order comes with a lot of different parts, you quickly spend an hour or two getting it all together.  Nothing comes easy!

But now that I have proven to myself that it is indeed feasible to invest in the little plastic brick and get enough return from it to buy the things you want, I`m concluding this series with this text.  I did draw some conclusions though, and those are:

1. Loose parts is work intensive, but on the long term a very good source of turnover.

2. Not every set is easily sellable these days, as production numbers are up and to many people are hoarding at the moment, waiting for EOL and Retirements, but the prices don`t explode at those points as they used to do.
Now think about this: almost EVERY set, when looking at the part out value, gains between half to full price on top of it`s RSP.  That is if you paid full price, so without even taking into consideration discounts and the likes.  SOME sets appreciate enough after retirement to double, but a lot fall far under their original price.  Take the gamble and have to stock sets for at least 2 years?   Or pull them open and part them for immediate potential turnover?  I know what I picked...

3. Minifigures are great value.  Franchised ones are pure gold, no matter how simple or common the figure.

4. Stay away from used sets unless they are TRUE iconic ones, like the big castles, large spaceships and classic Star Wars from the early "fleshy days".

Now, of course none of the above are words carved in stone, and some are already "common knowledge", but I always think that unless you test for something yourself, you don`t ever know if something is actually worth the effort and holds any truths. 

For me, as I said, this has been a test to see if what forums like BrickPicker or YouTube channels like Bricks On The Dollar are total bullshit, or even viable outside the United States, and I picked up a lot of good tips and ideas for sure.  Some didn`t work here either, but in general, yes, Lego is worth the investing at the moment and has a better rendition then your average savings account since the days of the bank crisis.  I`m pretty sure had I continued the experiment, I could indeed have doubled my money over the course of a year, I still had 7 months left to go. 
But that has no use, so what will happen now is that I will pull open my remaining sets and such, and BUILD them for this blog and use them in MOCs.  Because that is still the core of Lego, all possible profits aside!

Thanks for following this little series, and as always, all comments are appreciated!

Is Lego worth more then Gold? The Test part 4

Another month has gone by, and that means time to make the tally of how January 2017 went in my test.

Well, it's truly a bit of a special month, as with discount period showing up in Belgium, you could do some excellent buys at local supermarkets and the like.  Which I duly did.

Now, that means that I have made a very small margin this month, topping out at 113.20 euro left over at date of closure, which was yesterday.  But that is mainly due to the fact I have been spending a lot of the total in amount, which was 400.87 euro, on new sets, and on loose parts to complete old, big used sets.  Like a castle for example.

Now, the most solid ratio this month has to go to Brick Link.  I had a total of 33 orders for used parts, for a total amount of 148.08 euro.  This means it averages at 4.48 euro per order.  Now this doesn`t seem much, but at the amount of orders that is about 1 order every day, making this a nice constant flow in.  Add to that the loose minifigures clocking in at 49 euro (of which 13 have been re-invested so far), and you have a solid base to play the game on.

On a set level, I have done some serious invests this month, spending 128.83 on new "not easy to get" things.  Outfloing in that department was less, with 57.29 euro coming in from two old Minecraft sets.
In the range of "new" sets both old and recent, 10 sets left for a total of 138 euro.  A large portion of that, namely 99.32 euro, has immediatly been reinvested, but the good thing is that for that amound I added 24 sealed sets to my portfolio.
And yes, I did dabble in some more used sets.  I grabbed 2 rather big ones for a total of 24 euro, and even though I only parted with three small ones so far for 8.50 euro, I`m confident the new ones will seriously bump up numbers in february.  Castles, sailing ships... just need to wait for some loose parts orders to come in and be able to complete them to full restoration.

But never the less, I`m getting really close to "point zero" now, even with the reinvesting done.  I`m currently hovering around the 400 mark, with a " Testing" portfolio at the moment worth 2400+ euro in parts, sets and the likes, so I'm going to aim for a february "sprint" to reach the break even point. 

Traditionally, february is low on sales and deals as the winter wave has hit and the liquidation of the summer wave has passed by, so this is the moment to unload some additional inventory and set up for the june buy-in offensive when the waves will "overlap" again.

Is Lego worth more then Gold? The Test part 3

First of all, let me all wish you a happy new year as 2016 wraps up, and many trading fun in 2017.

Now, let's kick in an open door: the christmas season, according to the "professionals" if you follow sites like BrickPicker have been terrible.

Rampant complaining about bursting bubbles, big drops in end of year sales, "it's all Amazon's fault" and more of those things are spreading like wildfire.  And in a way, it is true, as even for this test, it was clear that what is said in those forums do holds a bit of merit.  And then again, it doesn`t either in some other ways.

If you took a look at the various Facebook pages that go about selling, the amount of Black Friday Amazon deals, and the discounted Kruidvat (a local chain of stores) sets have been abundant.  Everyone thought they could pick a big grain, and in the end, a lot where left with full stocks that didn`t move.  Personally, I barely bothered in december as everything was being saturated with boxed sets, and as such had only a modest movement of 200.57 USD, a measly 10 dollars more then it was in november. That means 569.29 USD to go to break even... or a more manageable 63.25 USD a month.

Now, what did move a LOT where again loose parts, and they "broke" into the green this month.  On the other hand, the used sets remain a disaster, with only two small Jurassic World sets moving for an "amazing" 28.24 USD.

For the rest, it was a calm month, as I got 84.11 USD worth of sets in, which I flipped again within a day for 99.39 USD.  While 15 dollars doesn`t seem that much, it was a quick, roughly 12% profit with minimal effort.  That is a decent margin for small stuff in the end, considering I had to do next to nothing, the profit almost can be seen just as a commission.

But as I said, the constant sources remain loose parts, and loose (franchise) minifigures, as they really made my month.  While I`ve spend 9.92 USD on some small part and fig lot at a fleamarket, I came in with 32.04 USD of loose parts, but also a staggering 108.25 USD in used figures.

Yes, this has made the decision final, as I`m going to be parting out the used sets, still counting for a huge 237.40 USD to recuperate.  If I tally those instead into the used parts department, which is now sitting on a comfortable 59.82 USD profit since the beginning (out of an initial investment of 200 USD), that would delete the whole used sets from my numbers and make the loose parts and figures department now an investment of 500 USD, of which 177.78 still has to be recuperated.  This actually looks far better then having to put hopes up with used complete sets to be honest, and more feasible.

So what direction to take?

Well, after one quarter of the test being completed now, a pattern for myself personally is being formed.  I'm going to aim for the remainder of the test on the loose parts and figures.
Sets, both new and old, are indeed saturated at the moment, and to that end I`m going to try and liquidate them over the coming months, probably at some event left or right.  And if they don`t go, I`ll just be opening them after the test, and part them out in pieces for my mocs. The things I can`t use for my Tolkien builds will be figures and pieces for trading.
Used Sets, I ain`t touching those ever again...
Exclusives is a dangerous and very volatile market, and then I`m not only talking things like the Fountain or other give away sets.  One day they go for a lot, the other it's all about pennies.  It has a too high risk factor in my opinion.
So yes, I`ll be focussing on loose elements (still a lot to sort) and figures of all kinds for supplementing my hobby budget in 2017, clearly these aren`t the high winners, but they are a far more constant source of turn over.

I`ll hopefully see you all back in a month, with more opinions on this little excursion in the trading of Lego around...

Is Lego worth more than Gold? The Test part 2

The first month of this experiment has passed by now, and I must confess I already am cursing some of the choices I made in the "buy-in" part.

A trend seems to be emerging already, and I can already see that some parts of the buy-in will require short of a miracle to even get break even.

Now, those used, complete sets where an awful mistake, as they move nearly next to nowhere, and I`m refraining from adding more of them to my portfolio anymore.  They turned over a measly 34.40 USD over the whole month, leaving me woefully short for recuperating the initial 300 USD assigned to them.  I guess I know now why they are easily available everywhere...

On the other hand, the whole "loose parts" are going like a train.  They had already recuperated a goo portion in the previous month, and continued to run smoothly during november, recovering another 90.01 USD.  I already reinvested in a whole lot of them, like on this video below, and spend 74.10 USD on fresh elements.  Adding in the loose minifigures that came out of the lot, and they are over 2/3rds of breaking even.

Set wise, the currently available ones are going slow, but I have been looking for promotions and the likes with the past Black Friday sales to top up the portfolio, and hopefully flip them over in the second half of 2017. 

I made myself a mental "table" on how much I`m willing to spend, at which discounts, and that resulted in this.  Not sure if it`s viable, or if I`ll find a gigantic amount of sets, but above those margins, I`m not buying in anymore

-50% : Creator, Ninjago, Technic, Nexo Knights, Superheroes, City, Friends
-40% : Star Wars, Jurassic World, Scooby Doo
-35% : Large Technic sets, Architecture, Disney Princesses
-25% : Exclusives

Now, a bit of clarification on some of them perhaps, but on the contrary to some, I`m a firm believer in the Disney sets, wether it being the minifigures, the castle, of the minidoll populated sets.  To many people in my opinion are jumping on Star Wars, and the market is really inflated on those.  Still, it being Star Wars I`m giving them more leeway then the current lines.
The same goes for Architecture sets.  Of all the ranges Lego produces, those are perhaps the most interesting ones from a non-Lego fan point of view.  I`m talking the smaller sets even, like Big Ben, the skylines, the small Eifel tower... sets anyone who loves those places can place on their mantlepiece of office desk without problem.
Time will tell, but those are things I`m definitly keeping my eyes open for.

The Numbers

So there we are, time for crunching some numbers after the first full month.  Starting with the good news, my ROI this month was 202.26 USD, meaning I`m only currently 769.86 USD "in the red".  That isn`t something to panic about, and at this rate I should be able to start making some profit in half a year time.  That also means the villa with swimming pool is still far off.
Adding numbers from last month, the reinvesting and all included, I need to recover the following as such:
Used parts still need 70.55 USD out of their initial 200 to break even, something I halfways expect to happen before long.
Used sets, as I started with, is turning out to be a hopeless case.  No less then 265.40 USD needs to be recuperated, and if those don`t start moving soon, I think I`m just going to part them out and go at it that way.

With all the buying I did in current sets, that still needs 157.27 USD to reach the break even mark, but the older sets, who already went in the green last time, kept rising and now already are 126.95 USD above their breaking even, so they are partly compensating the used ones. 
The Exclusives at the end did really well again, but it`s harder and harder to buy into them, especially with the holiday season at the door.  270.16 USD is what`s needed for them to go totally in the green, but I don`t think that will be a problem in the end at all.
My BrickPicker brickfolio is putting my stock out currently at 1769.71, and that would mean that in theory the doubling is possible, but we will have to see about that in 11 months time!

Well, that`s it for a few numbers and impressions for this month, the next episode will be coming somewhere between christmas and new year, so hopefully until then!

Is Lego worth more than Gold? The Test part 1

And so the first half month, or start, of this big test has begun, and it was a "special observation".

I actually did very good on the barely 2 weeks time, but in all honesty, I should say that this is all very preliminary, and it isn`t said at all this will go on for the coming 12 months.

While I`m going to run this oversight on a monthly basis, I am going to close off / publish the results every last sunday of the month unless I`m at a convention, as that gives me the time to do the maths every time without having to rush for free time.

The first half month has gone by in a craze, and if I drew the line right here, the test would be a straight "yes".  But that is not how it works, as I had a few special factors this time, in that

1. I went out the gate and opened my portfolio
2. I had one very good mover as someone came by and took along a serious pile.

Now the real hard part of the test is going to begin, to make smart choices, look for good finds, and hopefully move everything around in the coming 12 months.

One thing that did of course more then decent have been the sealed sets, but this is mainly due to part 2 of the points listed above.  Someone came along to pick up a single set and went home with two bags full of boxes and polybags, so I would say it`s more due to my charming personality.

Of the  sets that have left my portfolio, I already reinvested a large part and then some again in fresh sets.
Another big winner in my test have been the losse parts and elements tub I bought.  I`m just 1.10th into the box of sorting them out, identifying the parts and trying to move them, yet I already recuperated 135.90 USD out of the 200 USD.  Yet, I`m going to use that budget to buy-in on cheap franchise minifigures though, that`s a far easier job in the future for listing and pick and pack.  So far, a measly 36.55 USD has went back to that purpose.
The used sets... those are a bummer so far.  I picked up one for 4.80 and it went out again for 5.00, making a horrible 20 cents... but at least I didn`t loose anything on it, so that`s nice.  But for the rest it is quiet on that front... very very quiet.

So that brings us to the numbers part so far:

The split:

200 USD in used parts - This went great, already gaining me 135.90, and 36.55 has been spend again.  So now this is standing at 100.65 to get break even
300 USD in used sets The recipe for disaster is seems, as I spend an additional 4.80 on this section, and only got 5.00 in return, meaning I need to obtain 299.80 to break even...
500 USD in old and new sealed sets, divided as followed As stated above, these blew out of the gate from the go, but due to a special factor.  I already reinvested a certain amount, and as such the numbers now are as followes...
 * 100 USD of current small sets I added 35.13 USD to the total, but I already moved 49.43 USD, so it`s currently at 85.70 USD
 * 150 USD in older, retired, sets Didn`t do bad at all, as I moved 210.84 USD and put in a fresh 16.47 USD, for a result of 44.37 USD.  These sets have actually already payed themselves back, and can now start compensating my numbers in the future for the things that don`t do well.  I`m looking at you, used sets...
 * 250 USD in Exclusives as expected, I got 93.37 USD for a couple of it, and bought sets worth 257.27 USD.  The result as such is 413.90 USD, and I`m fairly certain I`ll be flipping those bigtime over the coming year, so this one part I won`t be having stress about as the longer they remain, the better they`ll perform.

So for the following month, the score is as follows:

-100.65 USD in Used Parts
-299.80 USD in Used Sets
-455.23 USD in old and new sealed Sets, divided as followed:
- 85.70 USD in current small sets
+ 44.37 USD in older, retired sets
- 413.90 USD in Exclusives

So that brings us to an oversight on how I actually performed this month.  Judging by all the red numbers above, you might think it looks grave, but actually it`s going fine.  My BrickPicker Portfolio has lowered a bit due to the lower number of sets currently in my possession, but the end of the line numbers are rather well.  You`ll notice a small discrepancy in the numbers above and those below, but that is due to the fact some sets have already been payed for, but haven`t arrived yet.  So they aren`t taken up in the "present stock" value yet.

The Numbers

Start: 1000 USD
Portfolio Value: 1790.80 USD - A slight lowering in projected value of remaining sets compared to last month, mostly due to the volume of sets having been significantly lowered.
Goal: 2000 USD
The Wet Dream: 3500 USD
Current: - 972.12 USD

So looking at the hard numbers, this means that this month I made a shift of an amazing... 27.88 USD, which is mainly due to the heavy buy in in Exclusive sets near the end of october (Minecraft, airline exclusives, that sort of things) and the fact the used sets aren't moving for the moment.

Time to panic?  Of course not, we are only two weeks down the line for a year long experiment and the fact "sale season" is nearing for EOL sets, I even expect the numbers to dip into the red far further the coming month or two.  After that, the real job begins in trying to bring the numbers back up, and go towards the greens...

For my personal feeling, I think I`m easily going to break even at the end of the year, but doubling... while I first thought that it would be sets that are going to break the bank, I`m more and more convinded that actual loose parts are going to be the tie-breaker... unless the used sets start performing, something I clearly overinvested in apparently.

Is Lego worth more than gold? The Test: introduction

The christmas period is approaching, so expect the traditional reports in newspapers and on websites of once again "LEGO is worth more than gold", "LEGO is the best investment" etc etc etc...

Now, I often roll my eyes about these sorts of articles, as people tend to think that EVERY piece of Lego falls under those lines, while it often goes about the big sets like UCS Falcon or the Taj Mahal that they talk about.

Not those boxes of Friends, Ninjago, City and other common lines.  They have by far to much production, and non-franchise rare figures, to even get close to the "double your money in 2 years time" mark.

Or have they?  Has my idea about this been wrong?  Is it true that every little piece is actually a fortune in the waiting?  Perhaps there is only one way to find out, namely to do research and do the test.

After reading a lot of books, sites, forums, topics etc on the matter and watching a lot of YouTube videos on it (BrickBarian being my favorite), I did come to one conclusion already.  Instead of running it from january 1st until december 31st as I initially planned to, it's better to run it from today until the last day of october 2017.  That way, you "cover" two periods known as the christmas rush, as end of year holidays (in the States, there is also Thanksgiving) kick in and I can pick those up.

Now, I have been preparing a "portfolio" over the past 6 months to accomodate this test, and put together a nice 1000 USD worth of investment bricks for doing the actual test.  I divided this over a whole lot of different areas, in order to be able to test it in various areas and through various channels.

The split:

200 USD in used parts
300 USD in used sets
500 USD in old and new sealed sets, divided as followed
 * 100 USD of current small sets
 * 150 USD in older, retired, sets
 * 250 USD in Exclusives

Now, I`m going to try and flip those over the coming 12.5 months through various ways. The goal at the end of the year is to get my investment back, with the surplus set aside for purchasing sets I actually want (or better said, bricks for my MOC`s and such), while doing some further investing throughout the year IF great opportunities arise.  Think garage sale hauls, or reductions of at least 40%, though I`m aiming more at 50 to be honest at the minimum, or it are some nice, old, retired sets.

The Numbers

Start: 1000 USD
Portfolio Value: 1839.99 USD
Goal: 2000 USD
The Wet Dream: 3500 USD
Current: - 1000 USD

Now, a bit of explaining perhaps with those numbers.
Start is what it says, the initial amount I invested for doing this test, by purchasing sets and all the past 6 months, loose elements through BL sales, figures through FB groups etc etc.  I want this back for sure.
Portfolio Value is what my amount of SEALED sets is currently worth according to BrickPicker.  Looking at those numbers, it might look like a sure shot to succeed in this test, but value isn`t the same as actually moving them, all the same I flip absolutely nothing and loose out big time on this endeavour.
Goal is the amount I would love to reach by the end of october 2017.  That would mean that you can indeed easily "double your money" with investing in Lego.  It would mean the test is a success, the articles are all true, and I should shut up in the future.  Well no, it could also mean an exclusive went through the roof, that I had to do a ginormous amount of work on them, or should consider a career in sales...
The Wet Dream is just what it says, a totally unrealistic "target" that would allow me to pat myself on the back and say "damn boy, you`re the man, you trippled that stuff".
Current is well, how much the score is right at that moment... so obviously as this is the introduction, a total loss over the whole line.

So that is the lines set and the ideas fleshed out, will I succeed?  I honestly have no clue.  There is a lot of external factors to consider.  The market is saturated at the moment, more and more people are hoarding their sets for resale, and the time of "finding a good deal" are long passed by as some prizes on secondary markets are absolutely out of hand.  But in a dog eat dog world, I feel myself as a fish in the water...